Rabobank: “Where We Stand Today In The Battleground States Is Almost Exactly Where We Were In 2016”
Tue, 10/13/2020 – 14:25
By Michael Every of Rabobank
Real Clear Politics?
It seems only appropriate. The Nobel Prize for Economics, which is not actually the Nobel Prize for Economics, was just awarded to Bob Wilson and Paul Milgrom… and the latter was fast asleep and had to be woken up to hear the good news.
The two got the gong this year for their work on auctions, which are all about trying to flog things on an unsuspecting public. I suspected their prize-winning work says slightly more than that. Then I saw a press summary saying their ideas “can be used to improve the allocation of respirators and PPE in future pandemics. In the early days of the COVID-19 crisis, states bid against each other for supplies, escalating prices and creating chaos” – and I thought perhaps not. Haven’t we shown that the actual solution to a lack of PPE and respirators is government intervention and moving supply chains home so that ‘just in time’ becomes ‘just in case’? Apparently not in economic academia. “Of course it works in practice, but does it work in theory?” as the old economist joke goes. Sleep on, sweet neoclassical economics, sleep on, and dream your little utopian dreams.
Which can be said for a lot of the market. Bloomberg, for example, is on fine apolitical form today with a breezy take:
“With pollsters predicting that Donald Trump will soon be out of the picture, global investors can finally breathe a big sigh of relief. Foreign policy could become more predictable, so they can start buying Chinese government bonds, which actually pay interest. They can also invest in the mainland, where a successful Covid-19 containment strategy has allowed businesses to resume. Money managers won’t have to be on the edge all the time. That is certainly what traders are betting on.”
It’s certainly true that this is the meme the pollsters have gone all-in on. Well, not all the pollsters. Zogby and the Democracy Institute, neither of which are included in the benchmark Real Clear Politics polling average, say something very different. Moreover, where we stand today is almost exactly where we were in 2016 in some respects in the swing states.
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